If War Breaks Out, It Will Not Be Long

Following the remarks by some Iranian commanders in the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the regular military about the inevitability of war with Israel, the representative of the country’s supreme leader in the Ghods Force – responsible for missions outside the country – confirmed this notion and added, “If a war is to take place, it will not be a long one.” Speaking to 9 Dey weekly, cleric Ali Shirazi also implicitly confirmed the presence of the Guards in Syria and Lebanon.

Ali Shirazi, who was transferred last year on orders from ayatollah Khamenei as his representative in the IRGC Navy to the Ghods Force, made these comments in response to the statement by the top Guards commander about the inevitability of war with Israel.

“The respected supreme Guards commander said that a war will take place but he also said that its timing and place are not clear. So we cannot say it will take place now,” Shirazi said and added, “But if a war does break out it will not be a long one and the result will be to the benefit of the Islamic umma [nation]. We are experts at protracted wars and the Israelis have absolutely no ability for a protracted war.”

On explaining why Iranian commanders were convinced that a war would take place with Israel he said, “Israel is acting in desperation because it sees itself on the verge of being annihilated. It is easy to take a stupid action and it will start a war so it can at least take a stab at Iran. When Guards commanders come out and make a statement it is on their understanding that they (Israelis) will eventually made a stupid move.”

In his talk with the weekly, this student of ultra-conservative cleric Mohammad Taghi also implicitly confirmed the statements of the top IRGC commander about the presence of Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria, something that has brought forth quick responses from domestic and international sources.

“At this point we still do not see the need to engage in Syrian issues like we do in Lebanon and Gaza. Today Syria’s military is in good shape. We do not see the need for ‘an extensive military presence’ in Syria today to decide to send military force there and to provide open military support for Bashar Assad. Our moral and consultative support in Syria is sufficient,” he further said.

The top IRGC commander on September 23 announced at a news conference that “war” with Israel was certain to take place and added, “Their threats alone proves that their enmity with Islam and the revolution is serious and eventually this enmity will end in physical conflict.”

Mohammad Ali Aziz Jaafari further said, “War will take place. What is not clear is when and where.” “They cannot tolerate the pace with which the revolution is speeding towards its goals, and so one day they will eventually create the conditions for war. This event will take place even if reason is exercised.”

Speaking of the preparations for this “inevitable” war, Jaafari said, “We must prepare for this war whose nature is completely different from the eight year war with Iraq. Our success will depend if we are appropriately prepared for the future war and adjust accordingly. We must use our experience gained in the Holly Defense (a reference to the 8-year Iran-Iraq war) as the basis of our preparations for the future war, because the nature of [the next] war will be very different from the previous one.”

Just a week earlier too the same commander had said, “Ever since the creation of the Ghods Force with the purpose of supporting deprived nations, particularly Muslims, some efforts have been made [in this regard] and some guards from Ghods Force have been present in countries such as Lebanon and Syria and this does not translate into our military presence.”

Even though he stressed on the absence of Iran’s military presence in Syria and Lebanon, the presence of the Ghods Force in Syria which do have a military nature brought forth wide reactions. Among them was Michael Soleiman, the president of Lebanon who summoned the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon and asked for an explanation for Jaafari’s remarks. Soleiman asked ambassador Ghazanfar Roknabadi to provide a formal explanation of the remarks made by the IRGC commander and why the Islamic republic undertook to send IRGC forces to Lebanon. The ambassador of course denied these remarks.

Another military official, Ramezan Sharif, the spokesman for the IRGC toned down the remarks of his commander when he said, “The armed forces of the Islamic republic of Iran have military attaches in other countries in the framework of international principles and norms.” He also said that currently about 15 countries, including Syria and Lebanon, had military attaches from the IRGC while a number of other countries had military attaches from the regular armed forces.

But criticism to these remarks or to the presence of Iranian forces outside was not restricted to other countries. Last week, Mohammad-Reza Tabesh, a member of Iran’s ninth Majlis reacted to such remarks by Iranian officials and said they had damaged the country’s national interest which would “undoubtedly bring harm to the beloved people of Iran.” His comments were pointed as he said, “last week and in the beginning of this week, two questionable comments were made by the commander of the IRGC to the effect that we had military forces in Syria and Lebanon and that war with the illegitimate Zionist regime was imminent. These remarks were objected to by Lebanon and created concerns among our own people because of the possibility of war, which would certainly exacerbate the economic disarray inside the country speeding up the transfer of material and human assets from the country.” He then advised officials to be more thoughtful in their remarks so they were not misused by the enemy.

Over the past few months, senior Iranian military commanders have repeatedly spoken about the inevitability of war with Israel and have presented two perspectives on it. In the first one, Israel would attack Iran and its nuclear facilities. In the second scenario, they predict that Israel, along with other international forces, would attack Syria. They have also repeatedly said that if hostilities break out with the current regime in Syria, the armed forces of the Islamic republic of Iran would enter the war as a supporter of Bashar Assad.