فرد انتخاب شده توسط باراک اوباما برای وزارت دفاع آمریکا، شدیدا نسبت به اقدام نظامی علیه ایران برای از بین بردن برنامه هسته‌ای این کشور بدبین است.
اشتون کارتر که روز جمعه در یک مراسم کوچک در کاخ سفید برای این سمت نامزد شد، با سیاست رئیس‌جمهور که در این سال‌ها بصورت علنی گفته دیپلماسی “ماندگار”ترین مسیر در ارتباط با ایران است، هماهنگی دارد.
کارتر در ژوئن سال ۲۰۰۸ در مقاله‌ای برای مرکز بلفر دانشگاه هاروارد می‌نویسد: “باید به اقدام نظامی علیه برنامه هسته‌ای ایران به عنوان بخشی از یک استراتژی جامع نگاه شود نه به عنوان یک گزینه مستقل. با این‌که بخشی از یک گزینه واقعی است اما اقدام نظامی نمی‌تواند به تنهایی مشکل را حل کند.”
او می‌نویسد، حمله نظامی در بهترین حالت می‌تواند برنامه هسته‌ای ایران را دو سال به تعویق بیندازد. این مقاله پیش از انتخاب حسن روحانی به ریاست جمهوری ایران یا آغاز مذاکرات این کشور با قدرت‌هایی بزرگ نوشته شده است.
کاتر سپس هزینه‌های چنین حمله‌ای را برای آمریکا شرح می‌دهد. او می‌نویسد، این می‌تواند منجر به “تاثیری بی‌بازگشت بر اذهان ایرانی‌ها شود؛ می‌تواند باعث دخالت فزاینده ایران از طریق حزب‌الله و گروه‌های وابسته دیگر در عراق، لبنان، کرانه غربی و غزه شود.”
او می‌گوید، منافع آمریکا در منطقه، از جمله سفارتخانه‌ها و کارکنانش در کشورهایی که همدست ایران محسوب می‌شوند، مورد تهدید قرار می‌گیرد.
کار کارتر در هاروارد متمرکز بر تلاش برای عدم تکثیر سلاح هسته‌ای بود، به ویژه بیم در مورد مواد هسته‌ای ناپایدار و چگونگی ردیابی و بدست‌آوردن آن‌ها.
او در این مقاله می‌نویسد، جایگزین مسیر دیپلماتیک “استراتژی بازداری و تنبیه ایران است که برنامه هسته‌ای خود را ادامه داده است؛ رشته‌ای از اقدامات نظامی ، حمله هوایی، محاصره، و بازداری با تهدید – می‌تواند در این استراتژی جای داشته باشد.”
گرِگ رزنبام، رئیس شورای دموکراتیک ملی یهودیان و همکار اشتون کارتر در دانشگاه کندی هاروارد می‌گوید، کارتر “برای جلوگیری از دستیابی به سلاح هسته‌ای شاید بیشتر هوادار گزینه نظامی بود. او به روشنی اشاره می‌کند که این گزینه به تنهایی نمی‌تواند برنامه سلاح هسته‌ای ایران را متوقف کند. به نظر او باید رشته‌ای از گزینه‌ها روی میز باشد.”
رزنبام به کار سخت و پشت صحنه کارتر به عنوان بخشی از گروه مشاوران دفاعی پنتاگون، در مورد روابط آمریکا و اسرائیل اشاره می‌کند. او می‌گوید، کارتر در ارسال جت‌های جنگنده اف-۳۵ به این کشور نقشی کلیدی بازی کرد.
او می‌گوید: “او در رسیدن اسرائیل به این درجه از پیشرفت نظامی نقش کلیدی داشته است.”
کارتر در مقاله سال ۲۰۰۸ به دورنمای حمله احتمالی اسرائیل به ایران اشاره می‌کند. ماه گذشته این دورنما، با انتشار اخبار مبنی بر آمادگی اسرائیل برای حمله به ایران در صورت راضی نبودن از توافق هسته‌ای با این کشور، دوباره تقویت شد.
در آن مقاله، کارتر به عدم توانایی اسرائیل به حملات مکرر علیه تجهیزات ایران اشاره می‌کند. او می‌نویسد، حملات اسرائیل با توجه به حریم هوایی غیردوستانه‌ای که این کشور مجبور است برای رسیدن به ایران از آن استفاده کند، محدود خواهد بود. “حمله اسرائیل کوچک خواهد بود. هزینه حمله اسرائیل برای آمریکا می‌تواند تقریبا به اندازه حمله خود آمریکا باشد.”
کاخ سفید در واکنش به این مقاله اشاره کرد، سیاست آمریکا علیه بازداری ایران هسته‌ای کاملا برقرار است: رئیس‌جمهور و گروه امنیت ملی او به تکرار قول داده‌اند که ایران هرگز به سلاح هسته‌ای دست نخواهد یافت.
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- 5 دسامبر 2014
