کوچههای مسقف بازار بزرگ تهران مملو از جمعیت است، اما مردم، با وجود حسرت مغازه داران فقط پرسه میزنند. تحریمها و سوء مدیریت دوران احمدینژاد، که تورم را در میانه سال ۲۰۱۳ به ۴۵ درصد رساند، قدرت خرید را کم کرده است. حالا تحت مدیریت حسن روحانی، نرخ تورم به ۱۵ درصد رسیده و انتظار میرود کشور امسال با رشد اقتصادی یک درصدی روبرو باشد. اگر تحریمها لغو شود بانک مرکزی ایران انتظار دو درصد رشد دیگر را نیز دارد.
اما یک متاع در راهروهای پیچدرپیچ بازار به وفور یافت میشود: امید. ورد زبان همه است. علی از طلافروشان بازار میگوید: “امیدواریم تحریمها برداشته شود. هشت سال احمدینژاد سالهای بدی بود. بخاطر اینکه هولوکاست را کتمان کرد، تحریم شدیم. از وقتی روحانی آمده اقتصاد بهتر شده. ارزش ریال بالا رفته و تورم پایین آمده است.”
داریوش، فروشنده لباس زنانه است و ده سال پیش اجازه نداشت سینهبندها را حتی روی مانکنهای بدون سر و پای پلاستیکی نمایش بدهد. حالا این امکان وجود دارد؛ این نشاندهنده آزادیخواهی تدریجی است اما او هم شکایت دارد که “در هشت سال احمدینژاد اقتصاد سال به سال بدتر شد. پس از مذاکرات هستهای امیدواریم بهتر شود.”
در شمال شهرمرفهنشین تهران نشانههای رکود طور دیگری است. برجهای مسکونی نیمه کارهاند و اسکلتهای بدون پنجره با حذف وامهای بانکی رها شدهاند. اما اینجا هم امید موج میزند. در کافهای بیرون موزه سینما پولدارها در آفتاب بهاری قهوه لاته مینوشند. این ایرانیها که مرتب به خارج از کشور سفر میکنند چندان نگران مشکلات ناشی از تحریم نیستند. اما امیدوارند با امضای توافق ارتباط ایران با جهان بهتر شود و ایرانهراسی کاهش یابد.
سینمای مجموعه برای نمایش فیلم “قصهها” ساخته رخشان بنی اعتماد تقریبا پر است. او بخاطر مطرح کردن مشکلات ایرانیهای طبقه متوسط و فقیر از طریق داستانهایی از خشونت خانگی، اعتیاد، بیکاری و طلاق مشهور است. در یکی از قسمتهای این فیلم، بدون اشاره به اعتراضات سال ۲۰۰۹، مادری به دنبال تامین وثیقه برای آزاد کردن پسرش است که در خیابان «بخاطر حقخواهی» بازداشت شده. داستانی دیگر، مسئولی را نشان میدهد که در اداره بهزیستی بدون توجه به مراجعین مستاصلی که روبرویش ایستادهاند با معشوقهاش گپ میزند.
در کنار امید، موضوع جدید دیگری نیز در سالهای اخیر بوجود آمده و آن آسودگی از امنیت کشور است. حتی کسانی که نسبت به انقلاب اسلامی نظر منفی دارند، از اینکه کشورشان حاکمیت و استقلال خود را حفظ کرده به خود میبالند. در حاشیه خلیج فارس کشورهایی را میبینند که از نظر آنها نوکر آمریکا هستند. حالا چیز دیگری هم اضافه شده: بنیادگرایی بربرها که در سراسر عراق ریشه دوانده، جنگ داخلی سوریه، لیبی و یمن و سرکوب مردم در مصر که از محدودیتهای حقوق بشری در ایران فراتر میرود.
داعش شاخکهایش را در عراق و سوریه دراز کرده و تعجبی ندارد که بسیاری از ایرانیان از آرامش سیاسی و اجتماعی خود خوشحال باشند. در اتاقهای فکر و میان سیاستمداران ایرانی حمایت از ثبات به عنوان اصل اول روابط خارجی ترویج میشود. باراک اوباما در نشست کمپ دیوید با رهبران کشورهای حاشیه خلیج فارس، «فعالیتهای آشوبگرانه» ایران در منطقه را محکوم کرد. اما مقامات ایرانی موضوع را برعکس میبینند. ایران اصرار دارد در عراق برای ثبات تلاش میکند و از لحاظ نظامی به دولت حیدر عبادی کمک میرساند و از او میخواهد بیشتر به نگرانیهای سنیها توجه داشته باشد، درست مثل واشنگتن.
در میان نخبگان ایران نیز بحث بر سر این است که تا چه حد باید به عبادی کمک کرد و چگونه با سوءظنهایی که سنیهای عراق نسبت به سیاستهای ایران در کشورشان دارند کنار بیایند. اما تمام طرفین در تهران اعتقاد دارند، ظهور دولت اسلامی فقط یک مسئله سیاست خارجی، آنطور که برای غرب است برای ایران نیست، بلکه برای این کشور تهدیدی علیه امنیت ملی است.
در سوریه نیز ایران ادعای منتقدان مبنی بر دخالت این کشور در امور منطقه را رد میکند و میگوید، تلاشهایش در جهت ایجاد ثبات در این کشور چندفرهنگی در مقابل پوچگرایان اسلامگراست. میگویند ایرانیها قرنهاست که به هیچکدام از همسایگانشان حمله نکردهاند و عامل بیثباتی منطقه را عربستان میدانند. حتی برخی از مقامات میگویند اقدامات عربستان در یمن یک “فتنه” جدید و بدتر از تمام کارهای اسرائیل علیه فلسطینیان است. با اینحالا از صلح با ریاض استقبال میکنند.
این نشان میدهد روابط با غرب تنها چالش پیش روی ایران نیست. موفقیت در مذاکرات هستهای در روابط با آمریکا پس از تقریبا چهل سال تنش تغییر ایجاد میکند. اما اگر عربهای خلیج فارس سیاست جدید اوباما را به عنوان “چرخشگاه” آمریکا به سمت ایران شیعه محکوم کنند، این موضوع میتواند کاهش تنشها با غرب را که مشتاقانه چشم به راه آن بودهاند، با افزایش ایرانهراسی در میان سنی ها تضعیف کند.
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clear-deal/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7384e728-ec08-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz348Kc0U5hhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/07/us-iran-direct-nuclear-talks-genevahttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0 ۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵