دیوید فروم
لیسی هیلی، مدیر خاورمیانه و سیاست دفاعی در مرکز کنترل سلاح و عدم تکثیر سلاح هستهای، به برداشت اخیر من درباره این‌که دولت اوباما “از خواست‌های درازمدت خود برای از کار انداختن سانتریفیوژهای ایران عقب‌کشیده” و طبق پیشنهاد جدیدش در مذاکرات هستهای “ایران می‌تواند پیشرفت به سمت ساخت سلاح در هر زمان ممکن را از سر بگیرد” پاسخ داده است.
آقای فروم این‌را متوجه نشده که تحت هر توافقی این موضوع می‌تواند اتفاق بیفتد. چون ایران پیشاپیش دانش لازم برای ساخت برنامه کنونی خود را بدست آورده، حتی اگر تمام سانتریفیوژهای خود را از کار بیندازد یا نابود کند، می‌تواند دوباره آن‌ها را بسازد. سئوال مهمتر این است که آیا آمریکا می‌تواند حرکت ایران را به سمت فعال کردن دوباره برنامه‌اش تشخیص دهد و به موقع واکنش نشان دهد؟ پاسخ این است که این با عوامل گوناگونی تعیین می‌شود، از جمله نظارت شدید و قابل تایید و بازرسی دائمی. بدون توافق این توان را نداریم که نظارت کنیم و برنامه هستهای ایران را تحت کنترل درآوریم. هیچ چیزی خطرناک‌تر از این نیست.
من به اخبار منتشر شده از ایران در روز دوشنبه اشاره می‌کنم:
بنا بر گزارش‌ها انفجار در تجهیزات نظامی نزدیک تهران موجب کشته شدن دو نفر شده است. خبرگزاری نیمه رسمی ایسنا گفت، این آتش سوزی در یک واحد تولید مواد انفجاری رخ داده… یک وب سایت هوادار مخالفان گزارش داده که انفجاری بزرگ نزدیک سایت نظامی پارچین، در جنوب شرقی پایتخت، رخ داده اما این موضوع تایید نشده است… از سال ۲۰۰۵ به آژانس بین‌المللی انرژی هستهای اجازه بازرسی از این سایت داده نشده است.
خبر مهم در سطر آخر است. این یادآوری می‌کند که در سال‌های مذاکرات حق بازرسی آمریکا چقدر محدود و ناموفق بوده است.
نکته کلیدی این است. واضح است که حاکمان ایران می‌خواهند تحریم‌ها برداشته شود. تاکنون اقدامات قابل توجهی انجام داده‌اند و احتمالا به زودی چیزهای بیشتری هم از دولت اوباما می‌گیرند. با این حال، حاکمان ایران به دنبال بازسازی روابط خود با آمریکا نیستند. آن‌ها خواستار سود حداکثر بدون کنار گذاشتن برنامه سلاح هستهای هستند. هرگونه حق بازرسی که ممکن است به آمریکا داده شود حقوقی خواهد بود که با عدم همکاری ادامه‌دار ایران با اهداف رژیم بازرسی همخوانی داشته باشد.
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- 7 اکتبر 2014
