باراک اوباما در کمپین ریاستجمهوری خود این ایده را که عدم گفتگو با کشورها برای آنها تنبیه محسوب میشود، مسخره خواند. آقای اوباما، ماه گذشته با اعلام سیاست جدید خود در قبال کوبا، انزوای هاوانا را یک سیاست منسوخ خواند که در طول دهها سال نتوانسته منافع آمریکا را پیش ببرد. در واقع انزوای دیپلماتیک – کوبا، ایران، کره شمالی یا کشورهای دیگر – تاثیر عمدهای بر رژیمهای ستیزهجو نداشته است.
با این حال، چیزی که آقای اوباما متوجه آن نشده این است که مراوده نیز تاثیر مثبتی بر این رژیمها ندارد.
روابط دیپلماتیک با روسیه مانع از جنگ سرد نشد (هرچند که شاید خطر آنرا بسیار کمتر کرد.) اخیرا نیز برخورد جدید دولت اوباما در قبال روسیه چیزی را تغییر نداد. این مراوده تغییری در روابط با ونزوئلا یا بشار اسد در اوایل دهه ۲۰۰۰ یا از ۲۰۰۹ تا ۲۰۱۱ ایجاد نکرد.
دولت اوباما اغلب از ایران به عنوان دستاورد مراوده یاد میکند، اما این موضوع خود حکایتی سئوالبرانگیز است. اوباما میراث دار شش قطعنامه سازمان ملل و تحریمهای مالی آمریکا و مذاکرات ۱+۵ است. او تا حد زیادی همان سیاستها را ادامه داده است. گشایش دیپلماتیک محصول سه عامل مرتبط با یکدیگر بود: تحریمهای نفتی که کنگره بر خلاف میل کاخ سفید علیه ایران اعمال کرد؛ انتخاب حسن روحانی به ریاستجمهوری ایران و شاید مهمتر از همه موافقت آمریکا در سال ۲۰۱۳ با حفظ توان غنیسازی اورانیوم و نیروگاههای اراک، نظنز و فوردو از جانب ایران.
به همین دلیل و به خاطر امتیازاتی که آمریکا در این مورد داده است، مثال ایران به عنوان نمونه تاثیر مراوده دیپلماتیک، چندان مثبت به نظر نمیرسد. اوباما ممکن بود بتواند بدون دیپلماسی پنهانی نیز به اهداف خود دست یابد؛ دیپلماسی با ابزارهای دیگر هم ممکن بود پاسخگوی اهداف اصلی و جاهطلبانه آمریکا باشد.
با این حال، ایران نمونه هشدارآمیزی از اشتباه گرفتن تاکتیک به جای سیاست است. تمرکز صرف بر مراوده، تمام ابزارهای دیگر را از صحنه محو کرد؛ ابزارهایی که در غیر این صورت میتوانست در استراتژی آمریکا نقشآفرینی کنند. به عنوان مثال، آمریکا از حمایت از تظاهرات عظیم ایرانیان در سال ۲۰۰۹ شانه خالی کرد (مسئلهای که هیلاری کلینتون، وزیر خارجه وقت، اخیرا از بابت آن تاسف خورده است) و تلاش برای تقویت احتمال تهدید نظامی آمریکا را قطع کرد. تصور مراوده به عنوان یک هدف به جای یک وسیله، ممکن است آمریکا را به آنجا برساند که پذیرای نتیجهای از مذاکرات باشد که قبلا برایش غیرقابل تصور بود.
این الگو نباید در مورد سیاست آمریکا در قبال کوبا یا هرجای دیگری تکرار شود. حتی اگر اعتقاد داشته باشیم که تلاش برای منزوی کردن کوبا از لحاظ دیپلماتیک و اقتصادی ناموفق بوده است، این بدان معنا نیست که معکوس کردن آن سیاست لزوما موفقیتآمیز خواهد بود؛ همانگونه که معلوم نیست عقب نشینی کامل نیروهای آمریکا از عراق، با پی بردن به خطا بودن حمله به این کشور در سال ۲۰۰۳، اقدام درستی بوده باشد.
موفقیت بستگی به داشتن اهداف واقعگرایانه، اتخاذ یک استراتژی برای دستیابی به آن اهداف و ترکیب تاکتیکهای گوناگون برای پیشبرد آن استراتژی دارد. سئوالات در مورد عادیسازی روابط با کوبا اینهاست: تا کجا، به عنوان بخشی از کدام استراتژی و در پیوند با کدام ابزارهای دیگر؟ انتخاب این یا آن تاکتیک و استفاده از آن - یا کنار گذاشتن آن - صرفا بر پایه سیاست یا تعصب، روش درستی برای موفقیت نمی تواند باشد.
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2014/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-outlines-nuclear-deal-accepts-limit.html?_r=0http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/five-unresolved-issues-iran-nuclear-programme-vienna-talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-should-focus-on-stockpiling-fuel-for-research-not-a-bomb/2014/07/10/1389ae36-06e2-11e4-bbf1-cc51275e7f8f_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/07/countdown-to-the-iran-deadline/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/ahmad-chalabi-pariah-iraq-prime-minister-bush-us-despairhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/opinion/harvey-pregent-iraq-iran/http://rt.com/news/170768-iran-energy-deal-usa/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10949449/Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-ridiculed-for-flashy-wristwatch.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/05/is-there-an-antidote-to-irans-regional-strategy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-pursues-subtle-strategy-on-iraq-1404507730http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/iraq-haider-al-abadi-isis-iran-airstrikes-unites-states_n_5543252.htmlhttp://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/07/01/iran-preparing-to-vanquish-isil/http://www.cnbc.com/id/101800154http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-should-ensure-West-keeps-eyes-open-on-Iran-360973%E2%80%8Bhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/jun/27/iran-isis-military-interventionhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.601824http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/iraq-isis-new-alliances-old-enemies-advancehttp://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/27/shouldn-let-iraq-bargaining-chip-with-iran/jgktOqxTh6pMXjGB2pidrN/story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/26/iran-students-kaplan-uk-stem-course-block-us-sanctionshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/middleeast/top-scientist-from-iran-hinders-talks-with-absence.html?_r=0http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-hsbc-iran-20140624,0,5438319.storyhttp://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/21/lionel-messi-argentina-iran-world-cuphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10916088/Are-we-opening-the-door-to-a-tyrant-worse-than-Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weapons-program-to-north-korea-1403303442?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304489104579636271915574660.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27883162http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-should-not-cooperate-with-iran-on-iraq/2014/06/17/f3144b9c-f63e-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-eases-constraints-on-academic-contacts-with-west.html?_r=0http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/06/iran-and-the-us-the-enemy-of-my-enemy.htmlhttp://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iranians-still-waiting-for-rouhani-to-deliver-on-promiseshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/us-iran-fight-jihadis-iraqhttp://www.lobelog.com/us-iran-bilateral-talks-on-the-edge-of-a-nuclear-deal/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7384e728-ec08-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz348Kc0U5hhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/07/us-iran-direct-nuclear-talks-genevahttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0 12 ژانویه 2015