سرمایهگذاری سیاسی دولت اوباما و دولت روحانی روی بحران هستهای ایران، نشان می دهد که در این مورد نه تنها باید “محتاطانه خوشبین” بود بلکه می توان “خوشبین” بود. با اینکه ممکن است قدرتهای جهانی و ایران برای امضای توافق نهایی هستهای به زمان بیشتری از مهلت ۳۰ ژوئن نیاز داشته باشند اما دو طرف امتیازهایی دادهاند که قبلا حتی تصورش را هم نمیشد کرد. به عبارت دیگر به نقطهای رسیدهایم که دیگر راه برگشتی نیست و از آنجا که هیچ راه جایگزین دیگری وجود ندارد نمیتوان حتی به شکست فکر کرد.
آیتالله علی خامنهای، رهبر ایران، شخصا در روند مذاکرات درگیر بوده است. پس از امضای چارچوب توافق لوزان، در سخنرانیهای او سه نکته وجود دارد که باید مورد توجه قرار بگیرد. اول اینکه، به تمام ساختارهای مختلف قدرت در ایران اطمینان خاطر داده که مذاکرهکنندگان از هیچ خط قرمزی عبور نکرده و منافع و آبروی ایران را حفظ کردهاند. دوم اینکه، بهرغم بیاعتمادی عمیق نسبت به غرب، بر حمایت خود از محمدجواد ظریف وزیر خارجه ایران تاکید کرده است. سوم آنکه، برای اولین بار عنصر کلیدی سکوی سیاسی روحانی را بر زبان آورده است: امکان روابط با آمریکا فراتر از مسئله هستهای (اگر تجربه مذاکرات هستهای به شکلی مثبت پایان یابد) خواهد بود. موفقیت مذاکرات، فضای سیاسی را ایجاد می کند که به واشنگتن و تهران اجازه میدهد قفل گفتگو در باب مسائل امنیت منطقه را بگشایند و موجب میشود باب همکاری عملی درباره تهدیدات مشترک ایران و آمریکا در سوریه، عراق، افغانستان، یمن یا لبنان گشوده شود؛ تهدید های ناشی از القاعده، داعش و گروههای دیگر تروریستی سنی در سراسر جهان که اکثرا توسط عربستان سعودی حمایت میشوند. این همکاری عملی پیش از توافق نهایی مشکل است.
به استثنای چند مورد پرثمر، مانند همکاری ایران و آمریکا در افغانستان، جمهوری اسلامی در گذشته معمولا از میز مذاکرات برای حل معضلات متعدد منطقه دور نگه داشته شده و نتیجه آن هم روشن است: شکست خوردند. محافظهکارانی که با ورود ایران مخالفند میگویند، این کشور حامی تروریسم است و از حزبالله لبنان، حوثیهای یمن، شبهنظامیان شیعه عراق و دولت بشار اسد در سوریه حمایت میکند و برای همین نمیتواند بخشی از راهحل باشد. بیاید این موضوع را باز کنیم و دکترین نظامی ایران در منطقه را تحلیل کنیم.
در مورد سیاست خارجی ایران دو مکتب فکری وجود دارد. اولی که دیدگاهی تندروانه است اعتقاد دارد آمریکا به دنبال تغییر رژیم است. بنا بر این مکتب فکری، نفوذ ایران بر همسایگان به این کشور اجازه میدهد از خود در مقابل حملات نظامی محافظت کند.
این ترسها بیهوده نیست و باراک اوباما اخیرا در مصاحبهای با نیویورک تایمز به نکته مهمی اشاره کرده است: “بخشی از روانشناسی ایران ریشه در تجربیات گذشته دارد، اینکه کشورشان تضعیف شده، اینکه آمریکا و غرب در دموکراسی آنان دخالت کرده است (اشاره به کودتای ۱۳۳۲) از شاه حمایت کرده اند و بعدا هم از عراق و صدام حسین در آن جنگ ناجوانمردانه پشتیبانی کردند.”
این گفتهها بیسابقه و مهم است. به عنوان یادآوری، این عراق بود که به ایران حمله کرد. ایرانیها به یاد دارند که کشورهای عربی خلیج فارس سرمایه جنگ را که ۵۰ تا ۱۰۰ میلیارد دلار تخمین زده میشود تامین کردند. همچنین به یاد دارند که غرب هم از عراق حمایت کرد. اوباما ادامه میدهد: “بنابراین بخشی از گفتههایم به تیم آمریکا این بوده که باید بین ایران ایدئولوژیک و پرخاشگر و ایران تدافعی که احساس شکنندگی میکند و گاهی واکنش نشان میدهد تفاوت قائل شوید چون آنها فکر میکنند این تنها راهی است که میتوانند از تکرار گذشته اجتناب کنند.”
ایران پس از جنگ هشت ساله که آنرا جنگ تحمیلی یا دفاع مقدس میخواند، در منطقه یک استراتژی نظامی در پیش گرفته و آن دفاع است. تعداد کشته شدگان این جنگ به یک میلیون نفر میرسد و دهها هزار نفر از آنان توسط سلاحهای شیمیایی عراق با پشتیبانی غرب کشته شدند و بیش از ۶۰۰ میلیارد دلار خسارت به بار آمد. در نتیجه ایران در منطقه روابط محکمی برقرار کرد تا از عدم تکرار چنین فاجعهای اطمینان حاصل کند.
بنا بر ارزیابی های طبقهبندی شده پنتاگون در سال ۲۰۱۴ “استراتژی نظامی ایران دفاعی است”. مسیر انتخابی رئیسجمهور پیشین، محمود احمدینژاد و همچنین سپاه پاسداران، پیشبرد نفوذ ایران بدون یک سر سوزن عقبنشینی بود. این موضوع منجر به افزایش تنش و هموار شدن راه برای مقابله نظامی شد، چرا که آمریکا و اتحادیه اروپا نیز در مقابل ایران کوتاه نمیآمدند.
اما مکتب فکری دوم در سیاست خارجی ایران آنی است که توسط حسن روحانی و جواد ظریف اجرا میشود: مراوده با غرب و همسایگان عرب از طریق دیپلماسی. در نتیجه توافق بر سر مسئله هستهای فرصتی یکتاست که هم به نفع آمریکا و هم به نفع ایران است و سیاست خارجی آمریکا را در خاورمیانه به مسیری متفاوتی سوق میدهد. اجرای توافق هستهای به احتمال زیاد به مذاکره دولت اوباما و ایران درباره مسائل منطقهای منجر خواهد شد. اما یک رئیسجمهور جمهوریخواه در سال ۲۰۱۷ میتواند این پویایی را پایان بخشد.
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most-charming-country-on-earth.htmlhttp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-expanding-military-role-in-iraqhttp://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/iran-begins-emerge-decades-isolation/24539http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/06/henry-kissinger-iran-isis_n_5777706.htmlhttp://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-arrests-suspected-nuclear-plant-saboteur-25323907http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/sudan-expels-iranian-diplomats-closes-cultural-centreshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/sudan-expels-iranian-diplomats-closes-cultural-centreshttp://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4669/uk-iran-british-shiiteshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/iran-widows-memoirs-iran-iraq-warfile:///D:/documents/0kar/sep/Summer%202014%20has%20apparently%20been%20a%20phenomenal%20time%20for%20Iran%20and%20its%20leadership.%20Over%20the%20past%20few%20months%20Lady%20Luck%20seems%20to%20have%20been%20rolling%20both%20the%20political%20and%20the%20financial%20dice%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20way.%20But%20everything%20in%20the%20garden%20is%20not%20quite%20as%20rosy%20as%20it%20appears.http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/01/world/middleeast/iraq.html?_r=0http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-bolsters-surveillance-of-phone-internet/2432555.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/29/iran-cyber-power-america-networkshttp://online.wsj.com/articles/frances-hollande-considers-inviting-iran-to-proposed-conference-on-jihadists-1409216590http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/world/middleeast/us-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-groups.html?_r=0http://www.aawsat.net/2014/08/article55335874http://www.businessinsider.com/rigid-customs-in-iran-are-pushing-divorce-rates-higher-2014-8http://www.huffingtonpost.com/camelia-entekhabifard/saudi-arabia-accepts-iran_b_5707587.htmlhttp://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-670210937http://www.thedailybeast.com/witw/articles/2014/08/22/can-women-in-iran-be-equal.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11051663/Douglas-Alexander-Iran-can-help-West-confront-Islamic-State.htmlhttp://breakingenergy.com/2014/08/18/no-iran-deal-is-better-than-any-feasible-deal/http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-influence-baghdad-shia-prime-minister/2417859.htmlhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2014/08/18/iran-dozens-unlawfully-held-city-s-prisonshttp://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/08/17/iranianconnected_house_in_toronto_at_centre_of_international_showdown.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11040245/If-we-have-to-work-with-Iran-to-defeat-the-Islamic-State-so-be-it.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/un-atomic-agency-chief-to-visit-iran-1408111463http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/urgent-need-for-improved-saudi-iran-relations-1.1372819https://news.vice.com/article/irans-government-is-worried-that-its-people-are-having-the-wrong-kind-of-sexhttp://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/iran-detaining-jason-rezaianhttp://www.ibtimes.com/us-iran-agree-haider-abadi-right-prime-minister-iraq-1656050http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/iran-should-free-my-son/2014/08/11/194022ce-216d-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/11/iran-ban-permanent-contraception-population-growthhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/08/11/iran-christians-flee-to-unlikely-sanctuary-in-bulgaria/http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/world/middleeast/attacking-obama-policy-hillary-clinton-exposes-different-worldviews.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/irans-war-on-journalism-1407691990http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/11/world/middleeast/crash-kills-39-reviving-questions-about-iran-built-plane.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/10/a-maple-syrup-mecca-for-iran-s-gays.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/opinion/sunday/ross-douthat-the-right-war.htmlhttp://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_deadly-iran-backed-terror-network-tawhid-salam-exposed_355066.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/09/obama-isis-northern-iraq-kurds-long-term-airdropshttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21611117-official-report-blows-lid-secret-world-sex-throwinghttp://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-nuclear-negotiator-to-resume-talks-with-iran-1407403996?mod=World_newsreel_4http://time.com/3091410/iran-gives-russia-its-best-chance-to-hit-back-against-western-sanctions/http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/08/05/these-people-i-interviewed-in-iran-clearly-loved-the-country-so-why-did-it-put-them-in-jail/http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Aug-05/266061-how-iran-has-moved-on-a-nuclear-deal.ashx#axzz39VA6gUdOhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/08/04/congress-can-change-the-iran-equation/http://fpif.org/iran-short-honeymoon-media-freedom/http://online.wsj.com/articles/german-businesses-warm-to-iran-1407099835http://www.crescent-online.net/2014/08/irans-quds-force-commander-pledges-total-support-for-gaza-resistance-crescent-onlinenet-4570-articles.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2014/07/31/just-a-hint-of-iran-sanctions-risk-stalls-bank-transactions/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/03/iran-goods-idUSL6N0Q758F20140803http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-obama-advisor-iran-nuclear-20140720-story.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/07/20/iran-nuclear-negotiations-sanctions-editorials-debates/12884821/http://online.wsj.com/articles/michael-hayden-and-evan-bayh-a-doubly-dangerous-iran-1405638861http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/19/why-its-right-to-keep-talking-to-iran/http://online.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-nearly-halve-iran-oil-export-revenue-in-two-years-opec-says-1405699476?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223004580037300446967496.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/07/18/the-claim-that-sanctions-on-iran-have-cost-the-u-s-175-billion-in-lost-exports/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/14/iran-nuclear-talks-kerry-zarif-20-july-deadlinehttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jul-16⁄264043-iran-seeks-nuclear-deadline-extension-us-demands-cuts.ashx#axzz37cQEha2ohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/14/iran-sanctions-us-cost_n_5585803.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/kerry-zarif-seek-to-close-gaps-over-iran-nuclear-deal-1405326530?mod=fox_australianhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-outlines-nuclear-deal-accepts-limit.html?_r=0http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/five-unresolved-issues-iran-nuclear-programme-vienna-talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-should-focus-on-stockpiling-fuel-for-research-not-a-bomb/2014/07/10/1389ae36-06e2-11e4-bbf1-cc51275e7f8f_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/07/countdown-to-the-iran-deadline/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/ahmad-chalabi-pariah-iraq-prime-minister-bush-us-despairhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/opinion/harvey-pregent-iraq-iran/http://rt.com/news/170768-iran-energy-deal-usa/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10949449/Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-ridiculed-for-flashy-wristwatch.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/05/is-there-an-antidote-to-irans-regional-strategy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-pursues-subtle-strategy-on-iraq-1404507730http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/iraq-haider-al-abadi-isis-iran-airstrikes-unites-states_n_5543252.htmlhttp://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/07/01/iran-preparing-to-vanquish-isil/http://www.cnbc.com/id/101800154http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-should-ensure-West-keeps-eyes-open-on-Iran-360973%E2%80%8Bhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/jun/27/iran-isis-military-interventionhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.601824http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/iraq-isis-new-alliances-old-enemies-advancehttp://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/27/shouldn-let-iraq-bargaining-chip-with-iran/jgktOqxTh6pMXjGB2pidrN/story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/26/iran-students-kaplan-uk-stem-course-block-us-sanctionshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/middleeast/top-scientist-from-iran-hinders-talks-with-absence.html?_r=0http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-hsbc-iran-20140624,0,5438319.storyhttp://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/21/lionel-messi-argentina-iran-world-cuphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10916088/Are-we-opening-the-door-to-a-tyrant-worse-than-Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weapons-program-to-north-korea-1403303442?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304489104579636271915574660.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27883162http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-should-not-cooperate-with-iran-on-iraq/2014/06/17/f3144b9c-f63e-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-eases-constraints-on-academic-contacts-with-west.html?_r=0http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/06/iran-and-the-us-the-enemy-of-my-enemy.htmlhttp://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iranians-still-waiting-for-rouhani-to-deliver-on-promiseshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/us-iran-fight-jihadis-iraqhttp://www.lobelog.com/us-iran-bilateral-talks-on-the-edge-of-a-nuclear-deal/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7384e728-ec08-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz348Kc0U5hhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/07/us-iran-direct-nuclear-talks-genevahttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0 - 16 ژوئن 2015