تام روگان
رئیس جمهور روحانی ظاهر قضیه است و آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای ارباب کل. در مذاکره با یک تمامیت‌خواه دینی، انعطاف نشان دادن ایده خوبی نیست. با این حال انعطاف بسیار، سنگ‌بنای استراتژی باراک اوباما در مذاکرات حال حاضر است. جان کری، روز دوشنبه در وین گفت، مذاکرات هفت ماه دیگر تمدید شده است. وی گفت که عقل سلیم این را می‌گوید.
این اشتباه است.
با پایان یافتن یک مهلت دیگر، آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای قدرت می‌گیرد. او با مشاهده استیصال اوباما، فهمیده است که صبر کردن جریمه جدیدی ندارد و به روحانی هم اجازه نمی‌دهد امتیازات واقعی بدهد. در حالیکه برخی ادعا می‌کنند مذاکرات پیشرفت داشته اما پرونده چیز دیگری می‌گوید. ایران با آژانس بین‌المللی انرژی هسته‌ای همکاری نمی‌کند و تجهیزات پلوتونیوم اراک را حفظ کرده است. ایران اصرار دارد ده‌ها هزار سانتریفیوژ خود را نگه دارد و تحریم‌ها بلافاصله برداشته شود. ایران با رژیم نیرومند بازرسی‌ها مخالف است.
فقط یک راه برای حل این تمرد وجود دارد. پرزیدنت اوباما باید محاسبات ایران را بر هم بزند. برای این کار، باید تهدید نظامی خود علیه جمهوری اسلامی را افزایش بدهد. گزینه نظامی علیه ایران بسیار پیچیده است. بسیاری از زیرساخت‌های هسته‌ای ایران مجهز به دفاع ضدهوایی است. هرگونه عملیات تنها می‌تواند سه یا چهار سال توانایی هسته‌ای این کشور را به تعویق بیندازد. توانایی نظامی آمریکا بسیار زیاد است و می‌تواند به زیر زمین نفوذ کند و حملات متعددی را انجام دهد. مسلما حمله هوایی می‌تواند موجب مقابله به مثل ایران با موشک‌هایش شود، قایق‌های کوچک در خلیج فارس اقدام به حمله کنند یا این‌که شبکه نیابتی و اطلاعاتی این کشور دست به اقدامات تروریستی بزند.
تندروهای ایران با سلاح هسته‌ای می‌تواند چتری امنیتی برای فعالیت‌های آن در منطقه ایجاد کند که این به معنای افزایش تروریسم و بی‌ثباتی بیشتر در خاورمیانه و بروز مسابقه هسته‌ای در منطقه است. مسلما کشورهای پادشاهی سنی نیز سعی خواهند کرد به سلاح هسته‌ای دست یابند. ایران هسته‌ای برای غرب نیز تهدید بزرگی خواهد بود.
در عین حال که تندروهای ایران نترس هستند، واقع‌گرا هم هستند. قاسم سلیمانی فرمانده نیروی قدس سپاه پاسداران را در نظر بگیرید. در حال حاضر او هر روز در عراق دیده می‌شود و نیروهای ایران را علیه داعش فرماندهی می‌کند. او همچنین مسئول حملات زیادی علیه نیروهای آمریکا و بریتانیا در عراق است. او از هر لحاظ یک تندرو است. اما او همچنین نسبت به واقعیت قدرت نظامی آمریکا هوشیار است. این یک حقیقت پنهانی را بازتاب می‌دهد. در جایی که داعش جانی و یاوه‌گو هستند، حاکمان ایران استاد محاسباتند و هر لحظه با توجه به فرصت‌ها و خطرها استراتژی تعریف می‌کنند.
بر این اساس اوباما باید حضور نظامی خود را در منطقه افزایش دهد. او باید بی‌صبری خود در مقابل بازی دیپلماتیک ایران را نشان دهد. در حال حاضر رهبران ایران فکر می‌کنند گزینه نظامی از بین رفته است.
تندروهای ایران با مشاهده تغییر لحن و استحکام فیزیکی آقای اوباما سریعا هوشیار می‌شوند. تهدید اوباما به همراه تحریم‌ها و کاهش درآمد دولت ایران، محاسبات استراتژیک این کشور را برهم می‌زند. مسلما دیپلماسی جدی تنها راه‌حل این بحران است.
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6?mod=World_newsreel_4http://time.com/3091410/iran-gives-russia-its-best-chance-to-hit-back-against-western-sanctions/http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/08/05/these-people-i-interviewed-in-iran-clearly-loved-the-country-so-why-did-it-put-them-in-jail/http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Aug-05/266061-how-iran-has-moved-on-a-nuclear-deal.ashx#axzz39VA6gUdOhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/08/04/congress-can-change-the-iran-equation/http://fpif.org/iran-short-honeymoon-media-freedom/http://online.wsj.com/articles/german-businesses-warm-to-iran-1407099835http://www.crescent-online.net/2014/08/irans-quds-force-commander-pledges-total-support-for-gaza-resistance-crescent-onlinenet-4570-articles.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2014/07/31/just-a-hint-of-iran-sanctions-risk-stalls-bank-transactions/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/03/iran-goods-idUSL6N0Q758F20140803http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-obama-advisor-iran-nuclear-20140720-story.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/07/20/iran-nuclear-negotiations-sanctions-editorials-debates/12884821/http://online.wsj.com/articles/michael-hayden-and-evan-bayh-a-doubly-dangerous-iran-1405638861http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/19/why-its-right-to-keep-talking-to-iran/http://online.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-nearly-halve-iran-oil-export-revenue-in-two-years-opec-says-1405699476?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223004580037300446967496.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/07/18/the-claim-that-sanctions-on-iran-have-cost-the-u-s-175-billion-in-lost-exports/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/14/iran-nuclear-talks-kerry-zarif-20-july-deadlinehttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jul-16⁄264043-iran-seeks-nuclear-deadline-extension-us-demands-cuts.ashx#axzz37cQEha2ohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/14/iran-sanctions-us-cost_n_5585803.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/kerry-zarif-seek-to-close-gaps-over-iran-nuclear-deal-1405326530?mod=fox_australianhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-outlines-nuclear-deal-accepts-limit.html?_r=0http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/five-unresolved-issues-iran-nuclear-programme-vienna-talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-should-focus-on-stockpiling-fuel-for-research-not-a-bomb/2014/07/10/1389ae36-06e2-11e4-bbf1-cc51275e7f8f_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/07/countdown-to-the-iran-deadline/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/ahmad-chalabi-pariah-iraq-prime-minister-bush-us-despairhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/opinion/harvey-pregent-iraq-iran/http://rt.com/news/170768-iran-energy-deal-usa/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10949449/Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-ridiculed-for-flashy-wristwatch.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/05/is-there-an-antidote-to-irans-regional-strategy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-pursues-subtle-strategy-on-iraq-1404507730http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/iraq-haider-al-abadi-isis-iran-airstrikes-unites-states_n_5543252.htmlhttp://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/07/01/iran-preparing-to-vanquish-isil/http://www.cnbc.com/id/101800154http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-should-ensure-West-keeps-eyes-open-on-Iran-360973%E2%80%8Bhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/jun/27/iran-isis-military-interventionhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.601824http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/iraq-isis-new-alliances-old-enemies-advancehttp://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/27/shouldn-let-iraq-bargaining-chip-with-iran/jgktOqxTh6pMXjGB2pidrN/story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/26/iran-students-kaplan-uk-stem-course-block-us-sanctionshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/middleeast/top-scientist-from-iran-hinders-talks-with-absence.html?_r=0http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-hsbc-iran-20140624,0,5438319.storyhttp://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/21/lionel-messi-argentina-iran-world-cuphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10916088/Are-we-opening-the-door-to-a-tyrant-worse-than-Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weap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- 26 نوامبر 2014
