جنگ در عراق در سایه آمریکا

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واشنگتن پست

» تحلیل واشنگتن پست از حضور نظامی ایران علیه داعش

در نظر بیشتر عراقی‌ها، بهترین متحد کشورشان در نبرد علیه داعش نه آمریکا و متحدانش، بلکه ایران است که مانع از ورود افراط‌گرایان به بغداد شده.

ایران شیعه غیر عرب، به شکلی موثر مسئولیت دفاع از عراق علیه این گروه رادیکال سنی را در دست گرفته و نیازهای دولت عراق برای کمک فوری را برطرف می‌کند.

روزانه دو تا سه هواپیمای جنگی ایران در فرودگاه بغداد به زمین می‌نشیند و سلاح و مهمات می‌رسانند. مهمترین فرمانده نظامی ایران، قاسم سلیمانی، نیروهای عراق را سازماندهی می‌کند و تبدیل به فرمانده شبه‌نظامیان شیعه عراق شده که ستون فقرات این نبرد محسوب می‌شوند. ایران برای دور نگه داشتن داعش از مرزهای خود به حملات هوایی نیز دست زده است.

در نتیجه نفوذ ایران درعراق، که پیشاپیش پس از ترک نیروهای آمریکا در سال ۲۰۱۱ زیاد شده بود، روز به روز افزایش می‌یابد.

حملات هوایی ائتلاف به رهبری آمریکا، به عقب راندن شبه‌نظامیان در بخش‌هایی از شمال از جمله یک شهر شیعه‌نشین کمک کرده است. اما بسیاری از عراقی‌ها اعتقاد دارند که آمریکایی بیشتر می‌خواهد به کردها کمک کنند. در ماه اوت حملات هوایی آمریکا کمک کرد که تهدید افراط‌گرایان علیه اربیل از میان برداشته شود. اما حتی بسیاری همین را نیز مرهون کمک‌رسانی ایران به کردها می‌دانند.

نابود شدن ارتش عراق در مقابل هجوم افراطیون، به ایران این فرصت را داد تا وارد عمل شود. خیل عظیمی از داوطلبان شیعه به نبرد پیوستند تا خلاء را پر کنند و جبهه شیعیان متحد با ایران را تقویت کردند.

یک مقام دولت عراق گفته است، این شبه‌نظامیان حالا کمابیش بخشی از نیروهای امنیتی عراق شده‌اند. او گروه داعش را بزرگترین هدیه برای ایران خواند. وی گفت، سال گذشته ایران سلاح‌ها و ادوات نظامی به ارزش حدود ۱۰ میلیارد دلار به عراق فروخته است. جمال جعفر یک فرمانده سابق شیعه در یک کنفرانس خبری تایید کرد که محموله‌های سلاح ایران هر روز وارد عراق می‌شود.

برخی از سنی‌ها نگران این موضوع هستند و اعتقاد دارند ایران عراق را اشغال کرده است.

یکی از دلایل اصلی نفوذ فزاینده ایران، شک دائم به نیات واشنگتن، خصوصا از جانب شبه‌نظامیان شیعه است. هادی الامیری، از سیاستمداران شیعه نزدیک به ایران و رهبر شبه‌نظامیان قدرتمند بدر، اخیرا در یک مصاحبه تلویزیونی گلایه کرده که عراق قربانی ده‌ها سال سیاست غلط آمریکا در خاورمیانه است. وی ادعا کرده که افراط‌گرایان سنی منطقه در گذشته از حمایت آمریکا برخوردار بوده‌اند. وی گفته است: “نگرانی ما این است که سیاست آمریکا تنها بازداشتن داعش باشد نه نابود کردن آن.” وی در مراسم بزرگداشت یک فرمانده سپاه که در عراق کشته شد عنوان کرد: “اگر به خاطر ایران نبود دولت العبادی تبدیل به دولتی در تبعید می‌شد.”

این ستایش فقط مختص شیعیان نیست. خالد العبیدی وزیر دفاع سنی عراق هفته گذشته در تهران گفت، کمک ایران به عراق علیه شبه‌نظامیان، یک نیاز استراتژیک برای عراق است.

سفیر آمریکا در عراق نیز اهمیت نقش ایران در مبارزه با داعش را تصدیق کرده است. “بیایید صادق باشیم، ایران همسایه مهمی برای عراق است. باید بین ایران و عراق همکاری باشد. ایران با نیروهای امنیتی عراق حرف می‌زنند و ما هم همین کار را می‌کنیم. ما برای تنش‌زدایی به آن‌ها وابسته‌ایم.”

اما علی خدری، مقام ارشد آمریکا در عراق از ۲۰۰۳ تا ۲۰۰۹ نسبت به نفوذ ایران هشدار داده است. “این موضوع نفوذ ایران در عراق و شام را افزایش می‌دهد.” او به خاطر شکست آمریکا در کاهش نفوذ ایران از سمت خود استعفاء داده است.

نفوذ ایران فقط به عراق محدود نمی‌شود و سوریه و لبنان را نیز در بر می‌گیرد. همچنین نفوذ بر شیعیان یمن نیز در ماه‌های اخیر موجب نگرانی مقامات این کشور شده است.

ایران و عراق همکاری نظامی خود را بی سر وصدا پیش می‌برند. ایران هر از چند گاه مرگ یکی از فرماندهان خود در عراق را اعلام می‌کند یا به نقش مستشاری خود اشاره می‌کند. رسانه‌های عراق به نقش نظامی ایران نمی‌پردازند اما حملات هوایی آمریکا و ورود مستشاران این کشور را علنا اعلام می‌کنند.

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12 ژانویه 2015