احتمالا توافق ایران به انجام میرسد و این چیز خوبی است. جمهوری اسلامی مسیر پنهانی سلاح خود را در عوض لغو تحریمهای اقتصادی بظاهر پایان میدهد. مسلما عدم قطعیت شدیدی وجود دارد، اما راه حل جایگزین یک جنگ خانمانسوز خواهد بود که به نفع هیچکس نیست. این توافق، برای اولین بار پس از ۳۶ سال، احتمال احیای روابط استراتژیک بین آمریکا و جامعه اسلامی شیعه را فراهم کرده که نه فقط ایران، بلکه حزبالله لبنان را نیز شامل میشود. به هر حال، حالا یک دشمن مشترک داریم که نامش داعش است.
با اینکه ممکن است کسی به روی خودش نیاورد، اما ایران برای مدرنیزه کردن میادین نفت خود حداقل به یکصد میلیارد دلار سرمایهگذاری خارجی نیاز دارد و شرکتهای نفتی آمریکایی منتظرند تا به محض لغو تحریمها برای برنده شدن در این سرمایه گذاریها تلاش کنند.
اما اشکال اینجاست: آنچه فراموش شده دو پروندهای ست که به دادگاه فدرال آمریکا تسلیم شده. دامارل علیه جمهوری اسلامی (۲۰۰۳) و پیترسون علیه جمهوری اسلامی (۲۰۰۷) که ایران را مسئول بمب گذاری در سفارت آمریکا در بیروت در سال ۱۹۸۳ و در اکتبر همان سال در پادگان نیروهای دریایی آمریکا میداند. در حمله سفارت، هفده آمریکایی، از جمله هشت مامور سیا، و ۳۲ کارمند لبنانی کشته شدند. دویست و چهل و یک خدمه آمریکایی هم در بمب گذاری پادگان جان خود را از دست دادند. هر دو دادخواست و یک پرونده دیگر که توسط کارمندان لبنانی تشکیل شد، منجر به صدور حکم چند میلیارد دلاری علیه ایران شد. دولت ایران، که به دادخواست پاسخ نداد و برای دفاع از خود در دادگاه حاضر نشد، یک ریال هم به خانواده قربانیان پرداخت نکرده است.
این احکام سد بزرگی برای هرگونه روابط دیپلماتیک بین واشنگتن و تهران ایجاد میکند. تصور اینکه ایران هرگونه مسئولیتی در قبال حملات سی سال پیش بر عهده بگیرد سخت است. همچنین غیرقابل تصور است که دولت اوباما بتواند احکام دادگاه فدرال را نادیده بگیرد. وقتی محدودیتهای اقتصادی علیه ایران لغو شود، وکلای شاکیان تقاضای دریافت غرامت خواهند کرد و مسلما به سراغ هر شرکت آمریکایی که با ایران وارد رابطه تجاری شده باشد خواهند رفت. (کنگره در ژانویه ۲۰۰۸ این را با تصویب قانونی ممکن ساخته است که به دادگاههای فدرال اجازه میدهد، پولهای جاری بین شرکتهای آمریکایی و نهادهای ایرانی را مصادره کنند.)
هیچ شکی در مورد مسئول بودن ایران وجود ندارد. یکی از افراد کشته شده در سفارت آمریکا رابرت ایمز، متخصص ارشد سیا در خاورمیانه بود. او در کاخ سفید به رونالد ریگان گزارش میداد. در آن زمان ریگان گفت: “ما [نام حذف شده] مرد ارشد تحقیقات خود را در خاورمیانه از دست دادیم.” شش ماه بعد، پس از بمب گذاری پادگان، ریگان نوشت: “همگی معتقدیم ایران این بمب گذاری را انجام داده، درست مثل سفارتمان در آوریل گذشته.”
واشنگتن مشکوک بود، اما شواهد محکمی برای ادعای خود نداشت. اما حالا نام ماموران سپاه پاسداران را که مسئول انجام این عملیات بودند در اختیار داریم. یکی از آنها، علیرضا اصغری، از ماموران اطلاعات سپاه است که در دهه ۱۹۸۰ در لبنان بسر میبرد. او بعد از آن معاون وزارت دفاع ایران شد. اما بنا به گزارشهای متعدد غربی، اصغری در سال ۲۰۰۷، ظاهرا به آمریکا فرار کرد و با خود کامپیوتری محتوی اطلاعاتی درباره برنامه سلاح هستهای ایران و اطلاعات فراوان دیگری درباره آموزش ماموران اطلاعاتی حزبالله در دهههای ۱۹۸۰ و ۱۹۹۰ به همراه داشت.
برخی از مشاوران شورای امنیت ملی جرج بوش، اطلاعات اصغری را با ارزش دانستند. در نتیجه، سازمان امنیت ملی هر عدالتی را که دولت آمریکا به یاد رابرت ایمز و سایر قربانیان اقدام اصغری بدهکار بود، بر باد داد. تصمیم سنگدلانهای بود. وقتی از یک مقام اطلاعاتی بلندپایه در کاخ سفید در مورد پناهندگی اصغری پرسیده شد، او جواب داد: «این اطلاعات محرمانه است و نمیتوانم در مورد آن چیزی بگویم.»
در واشنگتن هیچکس نمیتواند درباره اصغری حرف بزند. یک امر محرمانه رسمی است. سیا هرگونه ارتباط با فرار او را کتمان میکند. بله اصغری خودش فرار کرد اما اینکه سیا ادعا میکند، از محل زندگی اصغری خبر ندارد، باورکردنی نیست. میدانیم اصغری در سال ۲۰۱۳ به هلند رفت. او در دادگاه ویژه سازمان ملل در مورد ترور رفیق حریری شهادت داد. مسلما وقتی اصغری به هلند سفر کرده، تحت حفاظت بعضی سازمانهای اطلاعاتی غربی بوده است.
ارتباط با آدمهای بد، بخشی از سازوکار جاسوسی است. اگر به دنبال اطلاعات هستید باید دنبال آدمهای بد بگردید. اما همیشه بده و بستانی وجود دارد. پناه دادن به فردی با پیشینه اصغری، شامل یک محاسبه پرهزینه اخلاقی است. برخلاف بقیه منابع اطلاعاتی، این مرد مسئول مرگ صدها آمریکایی و چندین انسان بیگناه دیگر است.
اما پناه دادن آمریکا به مغز متفکر بمب گذاری بیروت، حکم دادگاه آمریکا علیه ایران را باطل نمیکند. دادگاه آمریکا میلیاردها دلار به خانواده قربانیان اختصاص داده، اما یک دلار از این پولها پرداخت نشده است. چون داراییهای مسدود شده ایران در آمریکا قبلا خالی شده– از جمله ۷.۴۱ میلیون دلاری که توسط کنگره به تری اندرسون، خبرنگاری که هشت سال در لبنان گروگان بود اعطاء شد. ایران پرداخت این احکام را قبول نخواهد کرد، همه چیز را کتمان میکند.
اما هر چه هست، قربانیان بمب گذاری لبنان نباید فراموش شوند. تنها میتوانیم امیدوار باشیم، دیپلماتها یک راهحل منطقی برای یک مشکل ظاهرا غیرممکن بیاندیشند؛ کار دیپلماتها همین است.
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Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weapons-program-to-north-korea-1403303442?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304489104579636271915574660.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27883162http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-should-not-cooperate-with-iran-on-iraq/2014/06/17/f3144b9c-f63e-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-eases-constraints-on-academic-contacts-with-west.html?_r=0http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/06/iran-and-the-us-the-enemy-of-my-enemy.htmlhttp://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iranians-still-waiting-for-rouhani-to-deliver-on-promiseshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/us-iran-fight-jihadis-iraqhttp://www.lobelog.com/us-iran-bilateral-talks-on-the-edge-of-a-nuclear-deal/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7384e728-ec08-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz348Kc0U5hhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/07/us-iran-direct-nuclear-talks-genevahttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0 28 آوریل 2015