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امریکن تینکر
امریکن تینکر

» هشدار امریکن تینکر به اوباما علیه توافق

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به نظر می‌رسد باراک اوباما باری دیگر روی اسب اشتباهی در خاورمیانه شرط‌بندی کرده است. با رویدادهای اخیر، استراتژی اصلی او برای کاهش دخالت نظامی آمریکا در خاورمیانه، با به رسمیت شناختن سلطه منطقه‌ای ایران و تلاش برای گسترش همکاری دوستانه با حاکمان این کشور بی‌اعتبار شده است. بسیاری از حامیان توافق هسته‌ای در دولت اوباما این ایده را مطرح می‌کنند که همکاری نظامی بین ایران و آمریکا برای شکست داعش، نمونه‌ای از مزایای چنین استراتژی است.

واقعیت نشان می‌دهد که اوباما و حامیانش قدرت ایران و نایبانش را زیادی‌ جدی و قدرت و عزم داعش و کشورهای معتدل سنی برای شکست ایران را دست‌کم گرفته‌اند. پیروزی‌های شورشیان سنی و داعش در عراق و سوریه در مقابل نیروهای شیعه تحت رهبری ایران نشان می‌دهد که ایران یک ببر کاغذی است و برتری نظامی چندانی ندارد و نباید از آن ترسید بلکه می‌بایست سرکوبش کرد. ادعای باراک اوباما مبنی بر این‌که تنها راه جایگزین برای توافق با ایران جنگ است، این واقعیت را که ایران و نایبانش از پس هزینه یک جنگ دیگر برنخواهند آمد نادیده می‌گیرد. نیروهای ایرانی در عراق، لبنان و سوریه می‌جنگند و باید از مرز طولانی با عراق دفاع کنند و همچنین در داخل از رژیم تمامیت‌خواه خود در مقابل مردم محافظت کنند.  

این می‌تواند برای آمریکایی‌ها هم بیدارباشی باشد که برای دستیابی به توافق هسته‌ای تا ۳۰ ژوئن عجله نکنند. امضای توافق با لغو تحریم‌ها، میلیاردها دلار پول در اختیار ایران می‌گذارد و این کشور را در آستانه هسته‌ای شدن قرار می‌دهد. این موضوع قدرتی به ایران می‌دهد که در حال حاضر از آن برخوردار نیست. چنین توافقی آمریکا را در جبهه دشمنان شیعه و در مقابل دوستان سنی خود قرار می‌دهد و تا نسل‌ها به خاطر نجات ایران و نایبانش مورد سرزنش قرار خواهد گرفت.

به نظر می‌رسد باری دیگر اوباما و غرب آخرین کسانی هستند که تغییر توازن قدرت در خاورمیانه را درک می‌کنند.

روسیه ضعف اسد و حامی اصلیش ایران را متوجه شده و خود را برای سوریه بدون اسد آماده می‌کند. منابعی در میان مخالفان سوریه می‌گویند، هواپیماهای روسی در سه ماه گذشته به سوریه کمک نظامی نرسانده‌اند و اخیرا ۱۰۰ نفر از دیپلمات‌های ارشد و مقامات فنی خود را از سوریه خارج کرده است. علاوه بر این، روسیه ۲۶ ماه مه اعلام کرد که موشک‌های دفاع هوایی اس-۳۰۰ را در آینده‌ای نزدیک به ایران نخواهد داد و گفت: «این کار نه‌تنها زودهنگام بلکه اشتباه است.»

خبر بد برای اسد و ایران در لحن وحشت‌زده حسن نصرالله، رهبر حزب‌الله لبنان نیز مشهود بود. وی گفت، داعش خطری است که در تاریخ سابقه نداشته و حزب‌الله در حال مبارزه با یک تهدید وجودی علیه لبنان و تمام جهان عرب است. وی هشدار داد اگر شورشیان سنی بتوانند رژیم اسد را سرنگون کنند در لبنان دست به کشتار، تجاوز و برده‌داری خواهند زد. او همچنین خواستار بسیج مردمی لبنان علیه داعش شد و به مشکلات حزب‌الله و رژیم اسد در جمع‌آوری نیرو در تمام جبهه‌ها اشاره کرد. در این نبردها ۱۰۰۰ نفر از مبارزان حزب‌الله کشته شده‌اند.

به نظر می‌رسد ایران و نایبانش نمی‌توانند شورشیان سنی که از سلاح‌های ضدتانک بهره می‌گیرند که اسرائیل در جنگ ۱۹۷۳ استفاده می‌کرد و داعش را که سلاح‌ها، مهمات و تجهیزات آمریکایی بر جای مانده را در اختیار دارد شکست دهند.

وقتی ژوئیه گذشته پس از سقوط موصل، بغداد مورد تهدید داعش قرار گرفت، ایران اولین کشوری بود که مستشاران و مبارزان خود را برای دفاع از عراق به منطقه فرستاد. فرماندهان ایرانی در سه سال گذشته دقیقا کارهای یکسانی را در سوریه انجام داده‌اند. در عراق از نیروی قدس سپاه، نیروهای بسیج، شبه‌نظامیان شیعه و حزب‌الله در نبرد علیه داعش استفاده می‌کند. بسیج یک نیروی شبه‌نظامی داوطلبانه است که مستقیما توسط سپاه و آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای فرماندهی می‌شود. بسیاری از فرماندهان نظامی ایران در عراق و سوریه، کهنه‌ سربازان جنگ ایران و عراق هستند. حالا تمام این نیروهای ایرانی برای بازپس‌گیریی انبار و رمادی از داعش تلاش می‌کنند.

به گزارش گاردین، در ماه مارس کشورهای سنی از جمله ترکیه، قطر و کشورهای حاشیه خلیج فارس، به رهبری ملک سلمان، پادشاه جدید عربستان توافقی را امضاء کرده‌اند که بر اساس آن تمام گروه‌های مخالف، شامل شورشیان معتدل سنی و جهادگرایان القاعده را برای سرنگونی رژیم اسد و پایان دادن به جاه‌طلبی‌های ایران متحد کنند. پس از آن شورشیان سنی و همچنین نیروهای داعش به پیروزی‌های بزرگی در سوریه دست یافته‌اند.

هفته گذشته ناظر حقوق بشر سوریه گفت، داعش کنترل هر شش گذرگاه مرزی عراق و سوریه را در اختیار دارد. حتی با حضور دائمی جنگنده‌های آمریکا، داعش بر منطقه‌ای تقریبا به وسعت اردن مسلط است.

کنگره باید مانع اشتباه استراتژیک نهایی اوباما یعنی امضای توافق با ایران شود. اگر دموکرات‌ها نمی‌خواهند رئیس‌جمهور خود را به چالش بکشند، باید حداقل امضای توافق را به مدت چند ماه به تعویق بیندازند تا تصویر استراتژیک خاورمیانه روشن‌تر شود.

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=0http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11233120/Final-effort-in-US-Iran-nuclear-talks-could-settle-35-years-of-enmity-and-help-defuse-Middle-East.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30015464http://online.wsj.com/articles/no-agreement-in-iran-u-s-talks-1415690789http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jackson-diehl-obamas-bet-on-iran/2014/11/09/72da39ac-65ea-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/nov/09/us-iran-russia-oil-prices-shalehttp://www.nationalreview.com/article/392268/too-many-carrots-iran-tom-roganhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/11/05/iran-general-shiite-militants-at-forefront-iraq-ground-war-against-is-group/http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.624512http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/31/iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-succession-supreme-leaderhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11189577/Hanged-Iranian-womans-final-emotional-message-to-her-mother.htmlhttp://www.wnd.com/2014/10/ex-u-n-inspector-iran-within-months-of-nuke/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11187774/West-waging-a-CNN-war-in-Syria-as-Isil-makes-gains-in-Iraq.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/25/execution-of-iranian-woman/17907371/http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21628010-their-lot-getting-worse-under-coshhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/iran-oil-prices-idUSL6N0SG3PS20141021http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29685856http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10/20/junk-and-knockoffs-iran-military-weaponry-panned-but-regime-still-formidable/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-iran-nuclear-compromise-idUSKCN0IA0BW20141021http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29646763http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/10/17/Syria-and-Iraq-Iran-s-red-lines.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/14/suleimani-high-profile-to-publicise-irans-key-anti-isis-rolehttp://www.vox.com/2014/10/14/6975977/which-countries-suffer-most-when-oil-prices-plummethttp://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-oil-russia-iran-20141014-story.htmlhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.620373http://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-tries-to-open-for-business-1413135020http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/10/08/why-iran-u-s-arent-on-quite-the-same-side-in-fight-against-islamic-state/http://www.thenation.com/article/181927/obama-fighting-isis-iran-and-russia-oilhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/10/what-does-a-good-nuclear-deal-with-iran-look-like/381170/http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/10/isil-us-intervention-rise-irania-20141017572560286.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/10/06/iran-explosion-an-accident-or-a-reminder/http://rt.com/news/193428-isis-plan-russia-nuclear/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-frees-wife-of-posts-tehran-correspondent-but-he-remains-in-custody/2014/10/05/608ecece-1495-4468-89b2-2d327c439983_story.htmlhttp://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/05/iran-succession-idINKCN0HU05A20141005http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/02/nuclear-talks-why-tehran-must-come-in-from-coldhttp://gulfbusiness.com/2014/10/saudi-arabia-fears-yemeni-tumult-may-boost-main-foe-iran/#.VDEFh_ldW_khttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/30/may-iran-takes-advantage-of-the-focus-on-isis/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSShttp://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/30/asia-iran-crude-idUKL3N0RU1IJ20140930http://www.newsweek.com/iran-says-its-willing-fight-isis-price-273939http://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-makes-the-rules-1411944618http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/27/opinion/impasse-over-irans-nuclear-program.html?_r=0http://online.wsj.com/articles/irans-president-criticizes-allied-bombing-in-syria-1411476268http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/22/iran-saudi-arabia-talks-thaw-relationshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/us/familys-video-appeals-to-iran-for-release-of-american.html?_r=0http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Editorial/2014/Sep-20271302-persian-pretense.ashx#axzz3DwDOsC2mhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-exclusive-idUSKBN0HG03T20140921http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-led-coalition-seeks-to-exclude-iran-from-fight-against-islamic-state/2014/09/13/71193e8a-3b4a-11e4-a023-1d61f7f31a05_story.htmlhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Sep-15270658-irans-culture-wars-still-do-matter.ashx#axzz3DNAxVcwJhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/09/11/what-obama-didnt-say-how-iran-fits-into-islamic-state-fight/http://nypost.com/2014/09/11/the-false-allure-of-an-iranian-alliance/http://www.crossmap.com/news/iran-iranian-authorities-raid-a-house-church-in-tehran-two-christian-converts-arrested-12048http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/09/uk-iran-nuclear-usa-idUKKBN0H424420140909http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/44626/john-simpson-iran-is-the-most-charming-country-on-earth.htmlhttp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/p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14/08/03/iran-goods-idUSL6N0Q758F20140803http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-obama-advisor-iran-nuclear-20140720-story.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/07/20/iran-nuclear-negotiations-sanctions-editorials-debates/12884821/http://online.wsj.com/articles/michael-hayden-and-evan-bayh-a-doubly-dangerous-iran-1405638861http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/19/why-its-right-to-keep-talking-to-iran/http://online.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-nearly-halve-iran-oil-export-revenue-in-two-years-opec-says-1405699476?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223004580037300446967496.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/07/18/the-claim-that-sanctions-on-iran-have-cost-the-u-s-175-billion-in-lost-exports/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/14/iran-nuclear-talks-kerry-zarif-20-july-deadlinehttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jul-16264043-iran-seeks-nuclear-deadline-extension-us-demands-cuts.ashx#axzz37cQEha2ohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/14/iran-sanctions-us-cost_n_5585803.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/kerry-zarif-seek-to-close-gaps-over-iran-nuclear-deal-1405326530?mod=fox_australianhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-outlines-nuclear-deal-accepts-limit.html?_r=0http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/five-unresolved-issues-iran-nuclear-programme-vienna-talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-should-focus-on-stockpiling-fuel-for-research-not-a-bomb/2014/07/10/1389ae36-06e2-11e4-bbf1-cc51275e7f8f_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/07/countdown-to-the-iran-deadline/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/ahmad-chalabi-pariah-iraq-prime-minister-bush-us-despairhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/opinion/harvey-pregent-iraq-iran/http://rt.com/news/170768-iran-energy-deal-usa/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10949449/Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-ridiculed-for-flashy-wristwatch.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/05/is-there-an-antidote-to-irans-regional-strategy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-pursues-subtle-strategy-on-iraq-1404507730http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/iraq-haider-al-abadi-isis-iran-airstrikes-unites-states_n_5543252.htmlhttp://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/07/01/iran-preparing-to-vanquish-isil/http://www.cnbc.com/id/101800154http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-should-ensure-West-keeps-eyes-open-on-Iran-360973%E2%80%8Bhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/jun/27/iran-isis-military-interventionhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.601824http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/iraq-isis-new-alliances-old-enemies-advancehttp://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/27/shouldn-let-iraq-bargaining-chip-with-iran/jgktOqxTh6pMXjGB2pidrN/story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/26/iran-students-kaplan-uk-stem-course-block-us-sanctionshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/middleeast/top-scientist-from-iran-hinders-talks-with-absence.html?_r=0http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-hsbc-iran-20140624,0,5438319.storyhttp://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/21/lionel-messi-argentina-iran-world-cuphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10916088/Are-we-opening-the-door-to-a-tyrant-worse-than-Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weapons-program-to-north-korea-1403303442?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304489104579636271915574660.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27883162http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-should-not-cooperate-with-iran-on-iraq/2014/06/17/f3144b9c-f63e-11e3-a3a5-42be35962a52_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/world/middleeast/iran-eases-constraints-on-academic-contacts-with-west.html?_r=0http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/06/iran-and-the-us-the-enemy-of-my-enemy.htmlhttp://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iranians-still-waiting-for-rouhani-to-deliver-on-promiseshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/13/us-iran-fight-jihadis-iraqhttp://www.lobelog.com/us-iran-bilateral-talks-on-the-edge-of-a-nuclear-deal/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7384e728-ec08-11e3-ab1b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz348Kc0U5hhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/07/us-iran-direct-nuclear-talks-genevahttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html?_r=0، ۷ ژوئن  ۲۰۱۵