یکی از سئوالات اصلی در کنفرانس امنیت مونیخ این است که آیا ایران و آمریکا میتوانند تا پایان مهلت تعیین شده، که احتمالا آخرین هم خواهد بود، به توافق هستهای برسند یا خیر. اما سئوال بهتر این است که اگر به توافق برسند، آنوقت چه میشود؟
این سئوالی است که اخیرا هنری کیسینجر در جلسه سنا مطرح کرده است. وزیر خارجه اسبق آمریکا، مدیر استراتژیستهای آمریکاییست که در دهه ۱۹۷۰ با شوروی مذاکره هستهای کردند.
آقای کیسینجر روز ۲۹ ژانویه به همراه دو تن از وزرای خارجه پیشین، جورج شولتز و مادلین آلبرایت، در کمیته سرویسهای مسلح سنا حاضر شد. آنچه در زیر میآید بخشی از اظهارات او در آن جلسه است:
“مذاکرات هستهای ایران به عنوان یک تلاش بینالمللی آغاز شد و به ضرب شش قطعنامه سازمان ملل سعی کردند از دستیابی ایران به توانایی هستهای نظامی جلوگیری کنند. حالا این مذاکرات به گفتگویی دوجانبه تبدیل شده تا تعیین شود ایران تا چه حد میتواند با ساخت سلاح هستهای فاصله داشته باشد. نتیجه این رفتار این است که از ممانعت از تکثیر سلاح هسته ای، به سمت مدیریت آن پیش می رویم.”
آقای کیسینجر همیشه سعی کرده موجب تضعیف دولت آمریکا نشود و این بار هم مستثنی نیست. اما به وضوح نسبت به تغییر موضع اولیه آمریکا در مذاکرات نگران است. او نگران است که چنین توافقی ایران را در آستانه تبدیل شدن به یک قدرت هستهای قرار دهد.
خبرهایی که از دولت نشت کرده حاکی از آن است که جان کری وزیر خارجه آمریکا در مذاکرات عنوان کرده که ایران نباید کمتر از یک سال با دستیابی به سلاح فاصله داشته باشد. اما همانطور که آقای کیسینجر به سنا گفته است، این موضوع اهمیت بازرسیها را بسیار بیشتر میکند. وی گفت: “فاصله زمانی یک سال، مشکلات بازرسی بزرگی ایجاد میکند، اما نظراتم در این باره را به زمان دستیابی به توافق موکول میکنم. اما همچنان مسئله تکثیر سلاح را مورد تاکید قرار میدهم. بر فرض اینکه بازرسیها تایید شود و ذخیره مواد هستهای مورد توجه قرار گیرد، سئوال این است که کشورهای دیگر منطقه چکار میکنند؟ اگر بقیه کشورهای منطقه به این نتیجه برسند که آمریکا توانایی هستهای با فاصله یک سال تا دستیابی به سلاح را مورد تایید قرار میدهد، آن ها هم خواهند خواست به چنین توانایی دست یابند. آن وقت در جهانی زندگی خواهیم کرد که همه –ـ حتی با وجود یک توافق ـ–به نقطه بحرانی بسیار نزدیک می شوند.”
آقای کیسینجر از کشوری نام نبرده، اما این کشورها میتواند شامل عربستان سعودی باشد که یک بمب از پاکستان خواهد خرید؛ ترکیه که نخواهد نشست تا ایران شیعه منطقه را اشغال کند؛ مصر که مدتهاست خود را کشور پیشروی جهان عرب میپندارد و احتمالا یک یا دو امیرنشین حاشیه خلیج فارس که به سعودیها اعتماد ندارند. علاوه بر اینها اسرائیل است که بدون ایجاد تهدیدی در منطقه، تصور میشود که سالهاست بمب هستهای در اختیار داشته باشد.
این دنیای بسیار متفاوتی خواهد بود. جهانی با کشورهای هستهای متعدد، که تعدادی از آنها تمایلات مذهبی انقلابی یا جاهطلبیهای اشغالگرایانه دارند، جای بسیار خطرناکی برای زندگی خواهد بود.
پرزیدنت اوباما ادعا میکند رژیم بازرسیها مطمئن است، اما ایران سالها برنامه سلاح خود را از بازرسان سازمان ملل پنهان کرده بود. برای همین است که سازمان ملل قطعنامههای زیادی صادر کرد و مذاکرات جاری پس از آن آغاز شد. اینها نشان میدهد، حفظ یک شیوه بازرسی قابل اتکا در کشوری که قصد دارد از آن فرار کند چقدر سخت است. آقای کسینجر گفته است: “هیچکس نمیتواند به طور کامل به سیستم بازرسی اعتماد داشته باشد، یا حداقل بعضی [کشورها] نمیتوانند.”
به نظر میرسد آقای اوباما میخواهد به هر قیمت که شده با ایران به توافق برسد. در هر صورت، نگرانیهای آقای کسینجر نیاز به موشکافی کنگره و به رای گذاشتن هرگونه توافق با ایران را مورد تاکید قرار میدهد.
منبع: وال استریت ژورنال 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-to-possible-future-policeman-of-the-gulf-9878695.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/22/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-difficulties-in-reaching-agreement.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/11/22/the-real-news-in-iran-tehrans-big-soccer-game/http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-k-foreign-secretary-says-there-is-potential-for-flexibility-in-iran-nuclear-talks-1416575085http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/nov/18/-sp-iran-sunni-sectarian-problemhttp://www.newsweek.com/carpet-bombing-us-talks-iran-284890http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/17/world/middleeast/nuclear-deal-with-iran-runs-into-obstacles-.html?_r=0http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11233120/Final-effort-in-US-Iran-nuclear-talks-could-settle-35-years-of-enmity-and-help-defuse-Middle-East.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30015464http://online.wsj.com/articles/no-agreement-in-iran-u-s-talks-1415690789http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jackson-diehl-obamas-bet-on-iran/2014/11/09/72da39ac-65ea-11e4-9fdc-d43b053ecb4d_story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/nov/09/us-iran-russia-oil-prices-shalehttp://www.nationalreview.com/article/392268/too-many-carrots-iran-tom-roganhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/11/05/iran-general-shiite-militants-at-forefront-iraq-ground-war-against-is-group/http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.624512http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/31/iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-succession-supreme-leaderhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11189577/Hanged-Iranian-womans-final-emotional-message-to-her-mother.htmlhttp://www.wnd.com/2014/10/ex-u-n-inspector-iran-within-months-of-nuke/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11187774/West-waging-a-CNN-war-in-Syria-as-Isil-makes-gains-in-Iraq.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/10/25/execution-of-iranian-woman/17907371/http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21628010-their-lot-getting-worse-under-coshhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/iran-oil-prices-idUSL6N0SG3PS20141021http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29685856http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10/20/junk-and-knockoffs-iran-military-weaponry-panned-but-regime-still-formidable/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-iran-nuclear-compromise-idUSKCN0IA0BW20141021http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29646763http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/10/17/Syria-and-Iraq-Iran-s-red-lines.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/14/suleimani-high-profile-to-publicise-irans-key-anti-isis-rolehttp://www.vox.com/2014/10/14/6975977/which-countries-suffer-most-when-oil-prices-plummethttp://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-oil-russia-iran-20141014-story.htmlhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.620373http://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-tries-to-open-for-business-1413135020http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/10/08/why-iran-u-s-arent-on-quite-the-same-side-in-fight-against-islamic-state/http://www.thenation.com/article/181927/obama-fighting-isis-iran-and-russia-oilhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/10/what-does-a-good-nuclear-deal-with-iran-look-like/381170/http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/10/isil-us-intervention-rise-irania-20141017572560286.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/10/06/iran-explosion-an-accident-or-a-reminder/http://rt.com/news/193428-isis-plan-russia-nuclear/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-frees-wife-of-posts-tehran-correspondent-but-he-remains-in-custody/2014/10/05/608ecece-1495-4468-89b2-2d327c439983_story.htmlhttp://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/05/iran-succession-idINKCN0HU05A20141005http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/02/nuclear-talks-why-tehran-must-come-in-from-coldhttp://gulfbusiness.com/2014/10/saudi-arabia-fears-yemeni-tumult-may-boost-main-foe-iran/#.VDEFh_ldW_khttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/30/may-iran-takes-advantage-of-the-focus-on-isis/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSShttp://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/30/asia-iran-crude-idUKL3N0RU1IJ20140930http://www.newsweek.com/iran-says-its-willing-fight-isis-price-273939http://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-makes-the-rules-1411944618http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/27/opinion/impasse-over-irans-nuclear-program.html?_r=0http://online.wsj.com/articles/irans-president-criticizes-allied-bombing-in-syria-1411476268http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/22/iran-saudi-arabia-talks-thaw-relationshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/us/familys-video-appeals-to-iran-for-release-of-american.html?_r=0http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Editorial/2014/Sep-20⁄271302-persian-pretense.ashx#axzz3DwDOsC2mhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/21/us-iran-nuclear-exclusive-idUSKBN0HG03T20140921http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-led-coalition-seeks-to-exclude-iran-from-fight-against-islamic-state/2014/09/13/71193e8a-3b4a-11e4-a023-1d61f7f31a05_story.htmlhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Sep-15⁄270658-irans-culture-wars-still-do-matter.ashx#axzz3DNAxVcwJhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/09/11/what-obama-didnt-say-how-iran-fits-into-islamic-state-fight/http://nypost.com/2014/09/11/the-false-allure-of-an-iranian-alliance/http://www.crossmap.com/news/iran-iranian-authorities-raid-a-house-church-in-tehran-two-christian-converts-arrested-12048http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/09/uk-iran-nuclear-usa-idUKKBN0H424420140909http://www.telegraph.co.uk/luxury/travel/44626/john-simpson-iran-is-the-most-charming-country-on-earth.htmlhttp://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-expanding-military-role-in-iraqhttp://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/iran-begins-emerge-decades-isolation/24539http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/06/henry-kissinger-iran-isis_n_5777706.htmlhttp://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-arrests-suspected-nuclear-plant-saboteur-25323907http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/sudan-expels-iranian-diplomats-closes-cultural-centreshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/sudan-expels-iranian-diplomats-closes-cultural-centreshttp://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4669/uk-iran-british-shiiteshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/iran-widows-memoirs-iran-iraq-warfile:///D:/documents/0kar/sep/Summer%202014%20has%20apparently%20been%20a%20phenomenal%20time%20for%20Iran%20and%20its%20leadership.%20Over%20the%20past%20few%20months%20Lady%20Luck%20seems%20to%20have%20been%20rolling%20both%20the%20political%20and%20the%20financial%20dice%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20way.%20But%20everything%20in%20the%20garden%20is%20not%20quite%20as%20rosy%20as%20it%20appears.http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/01/world/middleeast/iraq.html?_r=0http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-bolsters-surveillance-of-phone-internet/2432555.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/29/iran-cyber-power-america-networkshttp://online.wsj.com/articles/frances-hollande-considers-inviting-iran-to-proposed-conference-on-jihadists-1409216590http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/world/middleeast/us-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-groups.html?_r=0http://www.aawsat.net/2014/08/article55335874http://www.businessinsider.com/rigid-customs-in-iran-are-pushing-divorce-rates-higher-2014-8http://www.huffingtonpost.com/camelia-entekhabifard/saudi-arabia-accepts-iran_b_5707587.htmlhttp://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-670210937http://www.thedailybeast.com/witw/articles/2014/08/22/can-women-in-iran-be-equal.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11051663/Douglas-Alexander-Iran-can-help-West-confront-Islamic-State.htmlhttp://breakingenergy.com/2014/08/18/no-iran-deal-is-better-than-any-feasible-deal/http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-influence-baghdad-shia-prime-minister/2417859.htmlhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2014/08/18/iran-dozens-unlawfully-held-city-s-prisonshttp://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/08/17/iranianconnected_house_in_toronto_at_centre_of_international_showdown.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/11040245/If-we-have-to-work-with-Iran-to-defeat-the-Islamic-State-so-be-it.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/un-atomic-agency-chief-to-visit-iran-1408111463http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/urgent-need-for-improved-saudi-iran-relations-1.1372819https://news.vice.com/article/irans-government-is-worried-that-its-people-are-having-the-wrong-kind-of-sexhttp://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/iran-detaining-jason-rezaianhttp://www.ibtimes.com/us-iran-agree-haider-abadi-right-prime-minister-iraq-1656050http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/iran-should-free-my-son/2014/08/11/194022ce-216d-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/11/iran-ban-permanent-contraception-population-growthhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/08/11/iran-christians-flee-to-unlikely-sanctuary-in-bulgaria/http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/world/middleeast/attacking-obama-policy-hillary-clinton-exposes-different-worldviews.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/irans-war-on-journalism-1407691990http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/11/world/middleeast/crash-kills-39-reviving-questions-about-iran-built-plane.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/10/a-maple-syrup-mecca-for-iran-s-gays.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/opinion/sunday/ross-douthat-the-right-war.htmlhttp://www.todayszaman.com/anasayfa_deadly-iran-backed-terror-network-tawhid-salam-exposed_355066.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/09/obama-isis-northern-iraq-kurds-long-term-airdropshttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21611117-official-report-blows-lid-secret-world-sex-throwinghttp://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-nuclear-negotiator-to-resume-talks-with-iran-1407403996?mod=World_newsreel_4http://time.com/3091410/iran-gives-russia-its-best-chance-to-hit-back-against-western-sanctions/http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/08/05/these-people-i-interviewed-in-iran-clearly-loved-the-country-so-why-did-it-put-them-in-jail/http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2014/Aug-05/266061-how-iran-has-moved-on-a-nuclear-deal.ashx#axzz39VA6gUdOhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/08/04/congress-can-change-the-iran-equation/http://fpif.org/iran-short-honeymoon-media-freedom/http://online.wsj.com/articles/german-businesses-warm-to-iran-1407099835http://www.crescent-online.net/2014/08/irans-quds-force-commander-pledges-total-support-for-gaza-resistance-crescent-onlinenet-4570-articles.htmlhttp://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2014/07/31/just-a-hint-of-iran-sanctions-risk-stalls-bank-transactions/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/03/iran-goods-idUSL6N0Q758F20140803http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-obama-advisor-iran-nuclear-20140720-story.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/07/20/iran-nuclear-negotiations-sanctions-editorials-debates/12884821/http://online.wsj.com/articles/michael-hayden-and-evan-bayh-a-doubly-dangerous-iran-1405638861http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/19/why-its-right-to-keep-talking-to-iran/http://online.wsj.com/articles/sanctions-nearly-halve-iran-oil-export-revenue-in-two-years-opec-says-1405699476?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223004580037300446967496.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/07/18/the-claim-that-sanctions-on-iran-have-cost-the-u-s-175-billion-in-lost-exports/?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/14/iran-nuclear-talks-kerry-zarif-20-july-deadlinehttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jul-16⁄264043-iran-seeks-nuclear-deadline-extension-us-demands-cuts.ashx#axzz37cQEha2ohttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/14/iran-sanctions-us-cost_n_5585803.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/kerry-zarif-seek-to-close-gaps-over-iran-nuclear-deal-1405326530?mod=fox_australianhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-outlines-nuclear-deal-accepts-limit.html?_r=0http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/13/five-unresolved-issues-iran-nuclear-programme-vienna-talkshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-should-focus-on-stockpiling-fuel-for-research-not-a-bomb/2014/07/10/1389ae36-06e2-11e4-bbf1-cc51275e7f8f_story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?_r=0http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/07/07/countdown-to-the-iran-deadline/http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/08/ahmad-chalabi-pariah-iraq-prime-minister-bush-us-despairhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/opinion/harvey-pregent-iraq-iran/http://rt.com/news/170768-iran-energy-deal-usa/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10949449/Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-ridiculed-for-flashy-wristwatch.htmlhttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2014/07/05/is-there-an-antidote-to-irans-regional-strategy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-iran-overplays-its-hand-in-iraq-and-syria/2014/07/03/132e1630-02db-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-pursues-subtle-strategy-on-iraq-1404507730http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/30/iraq-haider-al-abadi-isis-iran-airstrikes-unites-states_n_5543252.htmlhttp://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/07/01/iran-preparing-to-vanquish-isil/http://www.cnbc.com/id/101800154http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-should-ensure-West-keeps-eyes-open-on-Iran-360973%E2%80%8Bhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2014/jun/27/iran-isis-military-interventionhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.601824http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/iraq-isis-new-alliances-old-enemies-advancehttp://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/06/27/shouldn-let-iraq-bargaining-chip-with-iran/jgktOqxTh6pMXjGB2pidrN/story.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/26/iran-students-kaplan-uk-stem-course-block-us-sanctionshttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/world/middleeast/top-scientist-from-iran-hinders-talks-with-absence.html?_r=0http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-hsbc-iran-20140624,0,5438319.storyhttp://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/21/lionel-messi-argentina-iran-world-cuphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/10916088/Are-we-opening-the-door-to-a-tyrant-worse-than-Saddam.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/06/22/iraqi-insurgents-capture-fourth-town-since-friday/http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-role-in-iraq-is-unlikely-to-include-combat/2014/06/20/85795050-305d-4ff3-a821-bdf5269c60bf_story.html?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1ehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-outsource-its-nuclear-weapons-program-to-north-korea-1403303442?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304489104579636271915574660.html&fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27883162http://www.washingtonpost.co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9 فوریه 2015